If a credible peace memo between Iran and the United States can end the current conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, it may temporarily weaken Bitcoin's "war hedge" premium. However, in the long run, it will strengthen Bitcoin's position as an asset for countries gradually reducing their reliance on the US dollar, especially in a more multipolar Gulf region.
According to Reuters, Tehran is considering a US proposal to limit uranium enrichment at lower levels and accept stricter inspections, while Washington would gradually ease sanctions on oil and banking, allowing access to about $10 billion to $20 billion in frozen assets.
๐จ Breaking News: Iran deal is 95% complete โ final stages just days away. โ War ends โ Strait of Hormuz reopens, toll-free โ Nuclear material issues resolved, Iran receives frozen assets and sanctions relief. If they can deliver. โ Fox News pic.twitter.com/YU11x3q4jk โ Bitcoin Archive (@BitcoinArchive) May 25, 2026
So, how might the Iran peace memo impact Bitcoin in the short term?
Reports on the economic impact of war indicate that concerns over a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed Brent crude prices up by double digits due to a "war premium," driving prices well above $100 and raising concerns about stagflation until news of negotiations caused oil prices to retreat to double digits.
As the tail risks in energy and shipping diminish, traditional "fear hedge" assets like gold and, to a lesser extent, Bitcoin, typically give back some gains when capital shifts to higher volatility stocks and credit instruments, especially if lower oil prices also alleviate pressure on bond yields and central bank tightening policies.
Crypto media has viewed the Iran peace deal as a volatility catalyst: a widely circulated analysis noted that an unsuccessful ceasefire attempt in April led to significant volatility in Bitcoin and other altcoins, while a lasting agreement could compress implied volatility as traders unwind their war hedges.
If Donald Trump signs and claims the agreement as proof of "peace through strength," the initial reaction will likely be a classic de-risking rebound, with Bitcoin behaving more like a high-volatility risk asset rather than a pure geopolitical hedge. This means it may underperform compared to those market segments that directly benefit from lower oil prices and narrowing credit spreads.
How will the easing of sanctions and a new Gulf order change Bitcoin's long-term demand?
Once Iran partially reintegrates into the formal system, its leadership will be acutely aware that sanctions could return in future confrontations. This awareness typically drives them to reduce direct reliance on the dollar, turning to gold, other currencies, and an increasing array of digital assets, such as Bitcoin and USDT.
Meanwhile, any agreement that can reopen the Strait of Hormuz and solidify a more multipolar Gulf order will accelerate secret attempts between Iran, China, Russia, and their partners to settle oil transactions outside the dollar. This dynamic is where neutral settlement tracks and crypto-based tools appear attractive on the margins.
Analysts have emphasized that the economic impacts of war are becoming evident.