The Trump-Iran war has reduced global oil supply by over 500 million barrels in just seven weeks, resulting in a loss of more than $50 billion in crude oil value. This disruption began in late February and shows no signs of slowing down. Analysts and Reuters data indicate that this impact will last for months, if not years, with significant challenges ahead for supply chain recovery.
The scale of this loss is not to be underestimated; according to Kpler data, it represents the largest energy supply shock in modern history. The missing barrels include crude oil and condensate that failed to enter the market, creating a gap that has already affected pricing, storage, and trade flows.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi stated on Friday that the Strait of Hormuz has reopened following a ceasefire agreement with Lebanon. Meanwhile, Trump indicated that a deal to end the war could be reached soon, but did not provide a clear timeline, leaving the market in speculation and traders on edge.
The global market is facing significant supply losses, with price risks rising rapidly.
The scale of the losses is staggering. 500 million barrels equate to ten weeks of global aviation demand, eleven days of zero road traffic globally, or five days without any oil supply to the global economy. Iain Macfarlane from Wood Mackenzie directly linked these figures to actual usage.
Reuters estimates show that this amount nearly covers the U.S. demand for almost a month, while Europe exceeds a month. This also corresponds to six years of fuel consumption for the U.S. military, based on an annual usage of about 80 million barrels, enough to supply global shipping for four months.
The futures market is currently pricing in a 44% chance that U.S. crude will break $100 per barrel this month if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz again. Traders are closely monitoring this strategic passage, as it controls a significant share of global flows.
Trump addressed the situation on Saturday, stating that Iran is trying to pressure the U.S. by threatening to close the strait again. He rejected this approach and stated that negotiations would continue without compromise. In the Oval Office, he remarked, “Iran is being a bit excessive... They want to close the strait again... They cannot blackmail us.”
As ships pass through the strait, damage has slowed the region's recovery.
Vessel tracking data shows that five LNG ships from Qatar's Ras Laffan are heading towards the Strait of Hormuz. These vessels are Al Ghashamiya, Lebrethah, Fuwairit, Rasheeda, and Disha. The first four are controlled by QatarEnergy, while Disha is chartered by India's Petronet.
If these ships successfully pass through, it will mark the first LNG vessels to transit the strait since the war began on February 28. Iran reopened this passage on Friday under a U.S.-brokered ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon, and by Saturday, oil tankers had already navigated this route.
Before the conflict, the Strait of Hormuz handled about one-fifth of global LNG trade, making it one of the most important energy corridors in the world. Qatar is the second-largest LNG exporter globally, with most shipments heading to Asia, but Iran's actions have complicated the situation.