The overall crypto market cap has dropped by 4.13% in the past 24 hours, falling to $2.44 trillion. Derivatives trading volume decreased by 17.51%. Bitcoin liquidations surged by 140.22% to $150.85 million, primarily driven by the forced closure of long positions.
Despite the widespread market downturn, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF Assets Under Management (AUM) grew to $100.05 billion, with an approximate daily increase of $3 billion.
This contradictory scenario highlights the current complexity of the crypto market. Declining prices, sluggish trading volumes, and increased long liquidations all point to selling pressure and weak market momentum. However, steady ETF inflows suggest gradual institutional accumulation, which could provide price support.
Bitcoin-Led Macro Sell-off
This phenomenon is crucial, reflecting a unified macro reaction.
Cryptocurrencies, as highly volatile risk assets, are extremely sensitive to liquidity and inflation expectations in traditional markets. When traditional markets experience volatility, the crypto market is often affected.
A key price level to watch is $71,000. If Bitcoin can stabilize above this level, it may curb broader market losses. Conversely, the price could continue to decline.
Leverage Unwinding and Panic Sentiment
The presence of high leverage in the market acts like pouring fuel on the fire. After a slight adjustment, the market rapidly exacerbated its decline due to the triggering of automatic sell orders.
Normalization of funding rates and a reduction in liquidation volume should be monitored, as this will signal the end of forced selling pressure.
CryptoCon's Outlook
Analyst CryptoCon shared a chart illustrating Bitcoin's position within historical bear market patterns. The current pullback is similar to the performance during the 2022 bear market, following a period of underperformance.
Looking at past cycles, the pattern is quite clear. The first bear market occurred in 2014, the second in 2018, and the third in 2022. Each followed a similar trajectory.
According to CryptoCon's analysis, the most likely next step is a price retracement to $45,000, eventually reaching $35,000. This zone is referred to as the "unification zone" and is expected to form between June and September 2026.
"It wouldn't be surprising given how much room most indicators have before bottoming out, and the bottom support indicators aligning with this zone ($35k-$45k)," he noted.
His chart clearly marks this area. A drop to $35,000 would represent an 86% retracement from the high, consistent with previous cycle bottoms. $45,000 would signify a 77% retracement.
"The final drop usually causes the most damage, and this part is progressively smaller in each cycle. It will be interesting then! (Oct-Nov this year)."
In the short term, the market faces selling pressure, deleveraging, and macro headwinds. However, in the long term, the infrastructure for institutional inflows appears quite solid.
For traders, the coming months could be volatile. For accumulators, lower prices might present an opportunity. Regardless, the $35,000 to $45,000 range is worth watching closely.