The Bitcoin market is showing divergence, with Polymarket traders estimating a 51% probability that the price of Bitcoin will fall below $45,000 by December 31, 2026.
The market appears relatively balanced, with YES shares priced at $0.51 and NO shares at $0.49. Although previous trading sentiment fluctuated between 44% and 49%, recent changes indicate a slight shift in expectations, though no clear trend has emerged.
Latest news: Bitcoin is expected to drop below $45,000 before the end of this year.
Potential Cycle Bottom Timeframe for Bitcoin
According to prediction market data, independent analysis also suggests that a cycle low may form later in 2026. Crypto analyst NoLimit points out that historical patterns show the time intervals between cycle highs and lows.
Data indicates that Bitcoin reached lows 406 days after the 2012 cycle high, 363 days after the 2016 high, and 376 days after the 2020 high. Based on this framework, the current cycle following the 2024 halving has yet to reach the anticipated bottom window.
This prediction aligns with a potential price range of $45,000 to $50,000, further supporting the bearish scenario reflected in Polymarket pricing.
Additionally, the Unspent Profit and Loss (NUPL) mentioned by NoLimit is a key on-chain indicator. Historically, this metric enters the “blue zone” near significant lows for Bitcoin, such as during the 2018 bear market, the 2020 crash due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and the 2022 crash. However, Bitcoin has not yet reached this level in the current cycle.
Whale Sell-offs Intensify Short-term Volatility
Recent on-chain activity has also heightened market uncertainty. Blockchain analytics platform Lookonchain reported that a long-dormant Bitcoin wallet sold 1,000 Bitcoins, valued at approximately $71 million. Since November 2024, this entity has sold a total of 3,500 Bitcoins at an average price exceeding $96,000, with estimated profits of $442 million and a return rate of 266 times.
Moreover, another early holder associated with Owen Gunden sold 650 Bitcoins, valued at over $11 million, after previously disposing of 11,000 Bitcoins.
On a macro level, external factors are also exerting pressure on market sentiment.
This hawkish stance is reflected in the so-called “dot plot,” which shows Federal Reserve voting members' expectations for interest rates in the coming months. The median forecast indicates only one rate cut this year, despite recent weakness in the labor market.