As of now, XRP is trading at $1.4408, positioned above the 200 EMA on the 5-day timeframe, within a contracting triangle structure. Analyst EGRAG Crypto notes that this structure has a 55% to 60% probability of breaking upward, while there is a 40% to 45% chance of a downward breakout to $1.15 or lower.
1-Hour Chart Analysis
The opening price on March 18 was close to $1.53, with prices fluctuating between $1.52 and $1.54 during the morning session, as the 50 SMA rose from below $1.49, keeping prices firmly above it.
By midday on March 18, prices began to decline. A series of large red candles pushed the price down from $1.53 to $1.48, then to $1.46, ultimately dropping to $1.44 within a few hours. The most significant pink volume bars on the chart concentrated during this midday to early afternoon period, confirming that this wave of decline had a strong selling intent. By mid-afternoon, prices found support between $1.43 and $1.44, attempting to rebound in the evening back to the $1.47 to $1.48 range.
This rebound faded overnight on March 19, with prices hovering between $1.44 and $1.47 in the morning session, until new red candles appeared again in the early afternoon of March 19, pushing prices back down to $1.44. The current 50 SMA is at $1.4873, sloping downward, exceeding the current price, with a gap of about 3.3%. Since the drop on March 18, prices have failed to reclaim this level.
RSI Indicator Remains Weak
The RSI panel shows the fast purple line at 38.86, while the slower yellow line is at 42.58. The purple line has crossed below the yellow line, which is a bearish signal on the 1-hour chart. Both readings are below the midpoint of 50. During the decline on March 18, the purple line touched a low near 28, the lowest point visible on the chart, before rebounding slightly. The current reading reflects a partial rebound from an oversold state but lacks any significant momentum recovery.
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EGRAG's Observations on the 5-Day Structure
The ascending triangle is viewed as a recovery zone rather than a confirmed breakout structure. Prices have reclaimed the short-term structure after the decline but remain below the major resistance zone between $1.70 and $2.05. EGRAG clearly states that this is not a clear bullish breakout environment.
To achieve the 55% to 60% bullish scenario, a breakout of the triangle and a reclaiming of $1.58 is necessary, which would open the possibility of moving towards $1.70. If it can stabilize above $1.70 and gain acceptance, rather than just a spike, the target will be the first major level of $2.05 based on the measured move of the ascending triangle. If this continuation holds, the macro target is $3.20, marked on the long-term chart. The level of $6.50 is also marked on the chart as a longer-term forecast.
If the 40% to 45% bearish scenario is triggered, it will take effect after losing triangle support and the 200 EMA. In this case, the immediate measured move target is $1.15, directly marked on the chart.