Key Takeaways:
According to data from prediction markets, Bitcoin (BTC) has a 65%-71% probability of dropping below $55,000 before 2026.
Investors expect that Strategy will not sell its holdings of Bitcoin in 2026.
Whale sell-offs and negative ETF inflows have further increased selling pressure on Bitcoin.
Prediction markets indicate that the bear market for Bitcoin is still ongoing.
Most investors trading on Polymarket and Kalshi expect Bitcoin to continue its downward trend in 2026, with target prices even as low as $40,000.
Traders believe there is a 59% chance that BTC will break below the psychological barrier of $50,000, while the likelihood of it dropping to $45,000 before the end of the year is 46%.
Lower price predictions for Bitcoin are also corroborated elsewhere. On another prediction site, Kalshi, traders estimate a 71% chance of Bitcoin falling below $60,000, and a 65% chance of it dropping below $55,000. The lowest price target on Kalshi is $40,000, with a 31% probability of BTC reaching this level before year-end.
Will Strategy Sell Bitcoin in 2026?
Bitcoin's recent price drop to $69,000 is below Strategy's average purchase price of $75,696.
Stable Inflows for Bitcoin ETFs
Meanwhile, the U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) saw negative net inflows again on Wednesday.
