Bitcoin's price has successfully broken through the upper boundary of its February-to-March trading range, briefly touching $74,000 after climbing above $70,000.
On-chain data indicates that Bitcoin has moved past a dense accumulation zone formed between $59,000 and $72,000. However, the price has recently retreated below the upper band of this range, although daily closing prices are yet to be confirmed.
Is $82,000 the Next Target?
The proportion of Bitcoin supply in profit has risen to approximately 60%, aligning with performance in the early recovery phases of previous cycles. Nevertheless, this remains below the long-term average of around 75%, which typically signals stronger bull market conditions. Concurrently, significant profit-taking by short-term holders recently reached $18.4 million per hour, suggesting the market needs to digest ongoing selling pressure to sustain higher price levels.
Glassnode analysis suggests that if Bitcoin can maintain levels above $70,000 while digesting this profit-taking, the possibility of further upside towards the 'realized price' near $78,000 and the current range high of $82,000 increases.
Furthermore, off-chain data indicates an improvement in demand conditions. For instance, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen inflows rebound after a period of outflows, with institutional participation picking up. However, open interest on CME futures remains subdued, implying that the current price surge is driven more by spot demand rather than increased leverage. While this trend has historically correlated with more stable market conditions, a robust uptrend typically requires both expanding capital inflows and derivative exposure.
Spot market indicators also corroborate the strengthening buy-side activity, with the cumulative volume delta across major exchanges shifting from sustained selling pressure to net buying, and Coinbase's flows showing stabilization and an upward trend.
Lingering Bearish Bets
Meanwhile, negative gamma exposure concentrated around the $75,000 mark may continue to influence price action in the short term, amplifying upside volatility through dealer hedging activities. Glassnode added, "This positioning suggests potential support for further upside in the short term, but achieving a sustainable trend may require sustained capital inflows and broader expansion of leverage and market confidence."