On March 20, approximately 24,600 Bitcoin options contracts are set to expire, with a notional value of around $1.7 billion. This event is significantly smaller than last week's options expiry, and therefore may not have a substantial impact on the spot market.
This week's Bitcoin options contracts have a put/call ratio of 0.96, indicating a relatively balanced position between bulls and bears. According to Coinglass, the maximum pain price is around $70,000, close to the current spot price, suggesting that many investors may realize profits at expiry.
The open interest (OI), which represents the value or number of Bitcoin options contracts that have not yet expired, is highest at the $60,000 strike price on the Deribit exchange, with $1.5 billion in bearish bets. The total open interest for Bitcoin options across all exchanges has continued to rise this month, reaching $44 billion.
In addition to today's Bitcoin options, approximately 176,500 Ethereum contracts are also set to expire, with a notional value of $377 million, a maximum pain price of $2,150, and a put/call ratio of 1.0. The total open interest for Ethereum options across all exchanges is about $9 billion.
This brings the total notional value of cryptocurrency options expiry to approximately $2.1 billion.
Spot Market Outlook
The spot market experienced a decline by the end of the weekend, dropping another 1.3% today, with the total market capitalization falling to $2.48 trillion.
Bitcoin has retreated to the middle of its consolidation range, briefly dipping below $69,000 on Thursday before recovering above $70,000 during the early Asian trading session on Friday.
Ethereum's price fell another 3% that day, dropping to the $2,100 level, and it may potentially breach the psychological level of $2,000 again, as the momentum from this week's rebound is weakening.
Most altcoins have also seen declines, with Hyperliquid, Zcash, and Toncoin experiencing more significant losses.
“What we are seeing now is just a wave of shorts continuing to add to their positions since the downtrend began.”