What Does the Z-Score Reveal in ETH Futures?
As a significant indicator in the crypto market, the Z-Score has recently risen in Ethereum futures, reaching 0.62. From a statistical perspective, a positive Z-Score indicates that open interest is above its 30-day average. Although it has not yet reached extreme levels, this data suggests a rebound in market participation, indicating a cautious but gradually strengthening momentum among traders.
Terminology Explained: The Z-Score is a statistical measure that shows how many standard deviations a data point is from the mean. In the crypto space, it helps identify whether a specific metric is above or below its usual range.
During the same period, ETH prices stabilized around $2,110, with significantly lower volatility. Analysis from CryptoQuant indicates that after a sharp decline in early 2026, the market is gradually recovering, suggesting a slow reorganization following previous turmoil.
Comparison with Previous Cycles
Looking back, Binance's ETH futures open interest exceeded $8 billion at the end of 2025, when ETH was trading between $3,000 and $3,500. By February 2026, this figure had dropped below $4 billion. The current $5.5 billion in open interest marks a partial recovery, indicating that the market is returning to a more normal state rather than entering a new bull market frenzy.
Cautious Attitude in the Current Market
CryptoQuant analysts note that since March, open interest in ETH futures has gradually increased, suggesting that prices are recovering and liquidity is returning to the market. The performance above the 30-day average indicates that new long and short positions are entering the market, reflecting a steady growth in interest.
This latest rise in open interest, combined with the stability of ETH prices, may signal stronger market volatility in the future. However, with high leverage prevalent and insufficient inflows into the spot market, a sudden increase in volatility could trigger significant liquidation risks.
Despite the gradual market recovery, Binance's current open interest remains far below the cycle peak of $10 to $12 billion reached in 2025. The current level of $5.5 billion provides room for further expansion. Meanwhile, the Z-Score of 0.62 serves as an early indicator of recovery momentum rather than a sign of speculative bubble formation.
Industry observers unanimously agree that these developments indicate the market is in a stabilization phase rather than an uncontrolled surge. As leverage increases and liquidity returns, traders are closely monitoring for signs of the next major market movement.
The resilience of Ethereum around $2,110 is key to restoring trader confidence. Although the recovery in open interest appears moderate compared to previous highs, it indicates that participants are cautiously re-entering the market after months of uncertainty.
If the current trend continues, trading volume in ETH futures is expected to eventually recover to previous peaks. However, analysts warn that the evolving balance between leverage and underlying spot interest will be crucial for the market's next direction.