As of the afternoon of March 20th, XLM was trading at $0.1662 on the Binance exchange, up 0.12% in the last hour. However, its price remains below the descending 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is situated at $0.1672. After breaking out of a triangle pattern and entering a key resistance zone, XLM quickly lost momentum. Analyst GainMuse points to this rejection as a potential precursor to a deeper pullback.
1-Hour Chart Analysis
On the evening of March 19th, Stellar's trading price hovered near $0.1705 before a series of red candles saw its price decline into the morning of March 20th, reaching $0.1645 by 09:00 UTC. During this descent, trading volume was mixed, with alternating pink and cyan bars indicating a lack of sustained directional conviction from either side.
By midday on March 20th, prices began to recover, with a series of green candles pushing the price from $0.1648 to $0.1689, while the 50-day SMA moved down from above at $0.1700 to $0.1672. During this recovery, the price briefly approached but failed to sustain above the 50-day SMA. The latest candle on the right side of the chart shows a red bar, with the price retreating from $0.1675 to $0.1662, with the 50-day SMA now positioned 0.6% above the current price and trending downwards.
The volume for the latest candle was 849.58K XLM, one of the larger volume bars on the right side of the chart, accompanying the afternoon pullback rather than the earlier recovery.
RSI Crossover Signal
The RSI indicator shows the fast purple line at 44.88 has crossed below the slow yellow line at 50.78. This crossover is a key short-term signal on the 1-hour chart. During the midday recovery phase, the purple line reached a high of 58, but it rapidly declined during the afternoon pullback, falling back below the yellow line. The yellow line was positioned precisely at the midpoint of 50.
The fast RSI line crossing below the slow signal line, with the slow signal line positioned at 50, indicates a shift in momentum from neutral recovery to weakness. The change in the purple line from 58 to 44.88 within a single trading day confirms that the recovery attempt lost follow-through at the resistance level and failed to consolidate above it.
Longer Time Frame Structure
The key observation lies in the performance at the resistance level. XLM, driven by the momentum from its triangle breakout, quickly entered the key resistance zone only to lose steam. The subsequent pullback is viewed by GainMuse as a sign of fatigue. The ascending structure that produced the breakout failed to sustain the price above the resistance area, effectively turning the breakout into a failed one.
The near-term scenario identified by GainMuse is that a small bounce from current levels may attract fresh selling interest, leading to a deeper pullback. Support lines visible below on longer charts also suggest this possibility.