Key Takeaways
Ondas (ONDS) announced on Friday that it had raised its revenue outlook for the fourth quarter and full year of 2025. However, its stock price still fell by approximately 6% in early trading.
The technology company now anticipates fourth-quarter 2025 revenue to be between $29.1 million and $30.1 million. This forecast represents an increase from the previous projection of $27 million to $29 million made in January 2026.
The updated revenue expectations surpassed analyst predictions. Market analysts had projected fourth-quarter revenue to be around $27.77 million and full-year revenue to reach $48.37 million.
For the entire fiscal year 2025, revenue is now expected to fall between $49.7 million and $50.7 million. This outlook is also higher than the company's previously provided guidance range of $47.6 million to $49.6 million.
The upward revision follows the completion of additional financial settlement procedures, after the company released preliminary data on March 9. The management team refined accounting calculations related to the fair value changes of warrant liabilities.
This accounting modification is anticipated to contribute approximately $102 million in net gains for both the fourth quarter and the full year. This substantial gain, primarily a non-cash accounting entry, is the main driver behind the improved performance.
Net income for the fourth quarter is projected to be between $82.9 million and $83.4 million. For the full year 2025, net income is expected to be in the range of $50.4 million to $50.9 million.
However, the EBITDA metric tells a different story. Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter is expected to be between a negative $9.9 million and a negative $9.4 million. For the full year, adjusted EBITDA is projected to be between a negative $31.5 million and a negative $31 million.
Liquidity Position
This indicates a robust financial position and a significant liquidity buffer.
2026 Outlook
The company is demonstrating aggressive expansion through mergers and acquisitions. Recent strategic moves include forming a joint venture with Heidelberger Druckmaschinen AG focused on autonomous drone defense technology, acquiring INNO Earth Moving Ltd. through a $140 million military contract, and gaining full ownership of 4M Defense Ltd. by acquiring a 30% stake in Chirokka Holding Ltd.
ONDS stock has experienced a remarkable surge of approximately 1458% over the past twelve months.
The company plans to release its complete fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results on March 25, 2026, accompanied by a conference call at 8:30 AM ET.