Latest data reveals Bitcoin's realized price stands at $54,374, while the current spot price hovers around $71,200. Currently, 40.48% of Bitcoin's supply is in an unrealized loss state, a metric historically coinciding with the late stages of bear markets and the commencement of the next accumulation phase.
Signals Revealed by the Chart
Bitcoin's realized price (currently $54,374) represents the average price at which all circulating Bitcoins last transacted on-chain. When the spot price is above the realized price, the entire Bitcoin market is in a state of unrealized profit; conversely, it is in a state of unrealized loss. Presently, Bitcoin's spot price is $71,243, slightly above the realized price by approximately 31%.
The chart highlights three periods, marked by yellow circles, where the spot price touched or fell below the realized price. The first occurred in early 2019, when the price briefly dipped below the realized price before recovering. The second was the 'black swan' event of March 2020 (COVID-19 pandemic shock), where the price significantly fell below the realized price amidst extreme volatility, but rebounded within weeks. The third period spans from mid-2022 to early 2023, during which the price hovered near and briefly dipped below the realized price against the backdrop of the FTX collapse and the 2022 bear market.
The current market landscape indicates that while the spot price is above the realized price, it is closer to it compared to the 2022-2023 period. The price difference between $71,243 and $54,374 is significant, but far from the substantial gaps seen during the 2021 bull market peak or the 2024-2025 bull run, where spot prices were two to three times the realized price.
Interpreting the Profit/Loss Analysis Panel
The panel below provides more referenceable historical data. It shows that 59.49% of the Bitcoin supply is currently in profit, while 40.48% is in loss. A dashed horizontal line on the panel marks regions where the profit and loss percentages have historically converged, roughly in the 50% to 60% profit range.
Two yellow circles in the panel below mark the bottoms of 2019 and 2022-2023, respectively. During both these periods, the profit percentage declined and briefly dipped below the horizontal dashed line, while the loss percentage rose to converge with this level. The current readings, with 59.49% in profit and 40.48% in loss, indicate the market is approaching, but has not yet reached, this historically critical convergence zone.
In 2019 (period marked by the first circle), the price rose from approximately $3,500 to about $13,000 within the following twelve months, until the COVID-19 shock interrupted this trend. In 2022-2023 (period marked by the third circle), the price surged from around $16,000 to approximately $73,000 by early 2024. The previous two instances where profit and loss lines converged near the dashed horizontal level have both preceded significant price rebounds.