Hyperliquid has recently launched the first U.S. macro event market, utilizing HIP 4 outcome contracts, allowing traders to bet on the year-over-year CPI for May 2026 using USDC. This market operates on a fully collateralized, no-liquidation model and will settle on June 10 based on data from the official Bureau of Labor Statistics.
HIP 4 is an upgrade to Hyperliquid's protocol that introduces 'outcome contracts,' a native element that provides security for prediction markets and similar options products. All contracts are fully collateralized, have a set expiration, and carry no leverage or liquidation risk.
On May 2, the protocol activated HIP 4 on the mainnet, with MEXC reporting that the initial products included daily binary contracts on Bitcoin prices, recording over 6.05 million contracts and around 4,000 independent traders on the first day, accounting for approximately 0.7% of the global prediction market trading volume.
How Does Hyperliquid's CPI Outcome Market Work?
The new CPI market expands this template from cryptocurrency prices to U.S. macro data.
According to reports on HIP 4 and outcome trading, each contract represents a discrete event, ultimately settling to 0 or 1 based on whether the pre-set conditions are met. The price before resolution reflects the market-implied probability of a 'yes' outcome between 0 and 1.
In the May CPI year-over-year market, traders are essentially buying and selling shares of the distribution of the 12-month change in the Consumer Price Index reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on June 10, 2026, with the volatility values and ranges defined in the market specifications linked to the official BLS data.
Unlike perpetual contracts, HIP 4 outcome contracts are fully collateralized upon entry: Hyperliquid's documentation emphasizes 'no leverage, no liquidation,' with the maximum loss for buyers being their invested principal, while the payout at expiration is fixed based on the event outcome, similar to binary options.
Notably, outcome contracts run directly on HyperCore and share a unified margin account with perpetual contracts, allowing traders to collateralize USDH or bridge USDC in one go and flexibly use these collateral assets across perpetual, spot, and event markets without isolating balances.
In early CPI trading, probabilities clustered within a balanced range, with the order book showing odds for key intervals around 34% to 43%. Total trading volume just exceeded $3,000, with open contracts nearing $5,000—though small in absolute terms, this aligns with the initial launch of the new product line.
The Importance of the CPI Market for Hyperliquid and Crypto Prediction Markets
Macro inflation is a natural primary target.
The market outlook for May and June emphasizes that CPI remains the most critical U.S. data point affecting risk assets, with recent consensus indicating a year-over-year increase between 3.3% and 3.7%, as traders closely monitor signs of energy-driven price pressures.