The trading price of Ethereum today is $2,093, up 0.93%, fluctuating between the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at $2,053.27 and the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $2,171.30. This creates a range of $118, with the current price facing immediate resistance, and if support is lost, it could drop to $1,941. Meanwhile, on-chain data shows that the available supply of ETH has fallen to its lowest level since 2022. The price chart and supply situation are showing opposing trends.
Range and Conditions Above
The Fibonacci structure on the daily chart spans from the March low of $1,941.09 to the April high of nearly $2,465.29. After recovering in April, Ethereum reached the Fibonacci 0 level and reversed, subsequently beginning to pull back. The current price of $2,093 is situated between the 0.786 and 0.5 Fibonacci levels, closer to the 0.786 support level.
Resistance above the current price is concentrated in two relatively close areas. The SMA100 is at $2,157.93, and the 0.618 Fibonacci level is at $2,171.30, just $14 apart, effectively forming a resistance zone, with the current price still $65 away from this resistance area. Once this point is breached, the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $2,203 becomes the next target, just $30 from the current price. The second resistance cluster is formed by the SMA50 ($2,260.78) and the 0.382 Fibonacci level ($2,265.05), which are only $5 apart. The distance between these two dual resistance zones is within $170 of the current price, while the declining moving averages exert pressure on the price at each level.
Three Declining Moving Averages
All three simple moving averages (SMA) are in decline. The SMA50 has been sliding since the April high. Although the SMA100 is also declining, it has begun to stabilize, currently nearly coinciding with the price, indicating that Ethereum's trading price is slightly below its 100-day average and has not successfully rebounded. The SMA200 is at $2,528.49, showing the steepest decline among the three, sharply dropping from the upper left and currently standing $435 above the current price.
The direction of the SMA200 is more significant than its position. Since Ethereum broke through $4,000 at the end of 2024, its direction has been consistently downward, and the rate of decline is faster than the price's recovery rate. The continuous daily decline reduces the distance, but its implications remain unchanged. Any rebound attempts will face continuously descending resistance until it stabilizes, which is not a static resistance but a dynamic descending resistance.
RSI Stabilizes Near Oversold Zone
The daily RSI is at 38.73, close to the 30 level, where historically, Ethereum has a higher likelihood of rebounding. The signal line is at 37.82, just below the RSI by a small margin. This proximity indicates that downward momentum is slowing rather than continuing to accelerate. This contrasts with Bitcoin's current situation, where its RSI is significantly below its signal line. Ethereum's momentum has not yet reversed, but it is no longer accelerating downward.
Exchange Reserves Drop to Lowest Level Since 2022
Exchange reserves refer to the amount of ETH stored in exchange wallets that is readily available for sale. When reserves decrease, holders transfer ETH to self-custody or staking, thereby removing it from the immediately available market.