Despite a recent brief rebound in Bitcoin's price, the overall market remains in a bear market configuration. The current rise appears more like a technical bounce than a fundamental shift in trend. From a market breadth perspective, the increase is driven by only a few assets, liquidity indicators show divergence, and there is a lack of comprehensive recovery. According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin's price has fallen back to around $71,000, while the tech stock sector continues to strengthen, reflecting a decoupling between the crypto market and traditional tech assets, indicating that crypto assets still face their own structural pressures.
Although institutional investors continue to enter the market, providing some support, $72,000 remains a key technical resistance level, suppressing upward momentum. If the market cannot effectively digest the overhead supply and participation does not significantly expand, the current rebound is highly susceptible to resistance and pullback. Decrypt data shows that short-term prediction markets are more optimistic about Bitcoin than Ethereum, reflecting traders' preference for Bitcoin to lead the gains, but the relatively low confidence in Ethereum also exposes the imbalance in the performance of major cryptocurrencies.
Industry experts generally use historical bear markets as a reference to distinguish between cyclical rebounds and true trend reversals. The Galaxy research team pointed out that a true regime shift requires simultaneous confirmation from multiple independent indicators, rather than simply identifying a single price breakout. Cointelegraph analysis mentioned that after Bitcoin fell below its one-year moving average in November 2025, the composite market indicator turned bearish. Only if the price can stably stand above this moving average, break through the realized price, and be accompanied by a sustained increase in trading volume, can it potentially mark the end of the bear market cycle.
Key validation signals are also reflected in institutional fund flows and on-chain data. Continued net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, increased overall market participation, and stabilization of on-chain liquidity indicators (such as CryptoQuant and Glassnode) are important bases for judging trend reversals. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan pointed out that current ETF inflow data may mask weakness on the speculative side, which is a typical bear market characteristic. A Coinbase Institutional survey also showed that nearly a quarter of professional investors still define the crypto market as a bear market, even if some believe Bitcoin is currently undervalued. In summary, only when market breadth, liquidity, and fund flows all turn positive can the end of the bear market be truly declared.