CLARITY Act Stalls, Bitcoin Price Action Dominated by ETF Flows

Despite market expectations that U.S. President Donald Trump would sign the CLARITY Act into law by April 3, 2026, establishing a federal regulatory framework for digital assets, the bill has recently stalled due to major banks rejecting compromise proposals from the White House. This development has made institutional-grade infrastructure more cautious in its response, temporarily suppressing optimistic market expectations for policy implementation.

Key industry figures continue to call for legislative progress. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has publicly supported the bill's passage, and the Trump administration has also shown a willingness to stand with crypto companies, surpassing the conservative stance of traditional banking associations. While this political and industry synergy has raised expectations for regulatory clarity, the ultimate effectiveness will depend on subsequent implementation details and enforcement.

In the short term, traders tend to react in advance to legislative expectations, and even if the bill is eventually passed, it may trigger a "sell the news" correction. Current market dynamics are more dependent on net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, order book depth, and changes in futures basis, rather than simple news headlines. Bitcoin's recent rebound to around $71,400 is linked to the return of ETF funds, but technically it remains below the 50-day moving average (approximately $76,546), with the 200-day moving average (approximately $96,527) further away, and the 14-day RSI in a neutral range of 55.7, indicating weak market sentiment. From a market structure perspective, if the CLARITY Act is passed, it is expected to reduce legal ambiguities for exchanges, custodians, lending platforms, and ETF issuers, enhancing compliance consistency and attracting more brokerage firms and retirement account platforms. However, if bank participation continues to be divided, the expansion of clearing, financing, and market-making services will be gradual rather than immediate. Veteran trader Peter Brandt pointed out: "Although the bill is a long-term positive for the industry, it is unlikely to trigger a disruptive revaluation of Bitcoin in the short term." The market consensus is that real structural changes take time to settle, and price reactions will lag policy signals. Bitcoin is currently in a consolidation phase, awaiting dual confirmation from funding and regulatory aspects.