Bitcoin Rebounds to $73,000: Reversal Signal or Bear Market Rally?

Bitcoin's price has recently rebounded to around $73,000, its highest level in nearly a month. According to CryptoQuant's latest report, this move is not driven by structural bullish forces, but rather by a temporary easing of on-chain supply and demand dynamics. On-chain demand data shows marginal improvement. The Bitcoin Apparent Demand indicator, which reflects the market's demand intensity for spot, fell to a low of negative 136,000 BTC at the beginning of the year, indicating a severe contraction in demand. However, this indicator has recently narrowed to around negative 25,000 BTC, showing an initial recovery on the demand side.

Sentiment in the US market is also recovering. The Coinbase Premium Index has rebounded from deeply negative values in early February to its highest level since October 2025, indicating a renewed buying interest from local US investors. This coincides with a significant surge in buying volume during the US stock market opening on March 4. At the same time, selling pressure is weakening. Traders' unrealized losses have reached their highest level since July 2022. Historical data shows that when most holders are in a loss-making position, their willingness to sell decreases significantly. This means that even without new funds entering the market, supply pressure is naturally easing. In addition, the selling pace of long-term holders has slowed down significantly. In the past 30 days, the amount sold by long-term holders has plummeted from approximately 904,000 BTC in November 2025 to the current 276,000 BTC, a decrease of 69%. The combined effect of supply contraction and a slight recovery in demand constitutes the main driver of this round of price increases. However, this is not equivalent to a large-scale influx of strong new funds.

It is worth noting that despite the improvement in several indicators, CryptoQuant's Bitcoin Bull Market Score remains only 10/100. This index comprehensively assesses multiple on-chain signals. Historical experience shows that such low scores usually appear in bear market environments, rather than at the start of a bull market. Therefore, the current market should be understood as a typical "rebound recovery" – a temporary rise driven by reduced selling pressure and a slight recovery in demand, without breaking away from the bear market structure. Such rebounds may last for a long time, but may reverse at any time due to the fading of driving factors. Bitcoin's rise from $63,000 to $73,000 is undoubtedly positive progress, but this is fundamentally different from the market truly starting a new round of bull market. On-chain data clearly reveals this difference.