Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran, in his latest policy statement, pointed out that current monetary policy is too tight and suggested lowering interest rates to the neutral range as soon as possible to better support economic recovery. He emphasized that the neutral level of the federal funds rate should be between 2.5% and 2.75%, and the central bank should prioritize lowering interest rates to this range before dynamically assessing the next step based on subsequent economic data.
Miran also mentioned that the Fed usually does not directly react to oil price fluctuations, but if recent energy price shocks lead to sustained weakness in consumer demand, it may put downward pressure on core inflation. In this case, policymakers will be more inclined to take an easing stance.
This statement closely follows the release of the U.S. February non-farm payroll data. The data showed that non-farm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 92,000 in the month, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, far exceeding market expectations, further strengthening market expectations that the Fed is about to start a rate cut cycle. Miran even stated that if the rate cut is not initiated at this month's meeting, he may cast a dissenting vote.
In addition, Miran revealed that in the current highly uncertain policy environment, he personally finds it difficult to develop long-term plans, but will continue to perform his duties until his successor is officially confirmed.