March 6th saw continued volatility in crypto market sentiment, significantly influenced by the latest US economic data. The non-farm payroll report for the month fell far short of expectations, with the US economy shedding over 92,000 jobs in February, marking its worst performance in years. This contrasted sharply with previous market forecasts of 59,000 new jobs. Simultaneously, the unemployment rate rose from 4.3% in January to 4.4%, and the labor force participation rate declined to 62%. While average hourly earnings saw a slight increase of 0.4%, the overall labor market indicated a cooling trend.
A wave of corporate layoffs further intensified market concerns. Amazon further reduced positions in its robotics division this week, bringing its total layoffs to 57,000 over the past three years. Retail and logistics giants such as Target and UPS have also successively reduced their workforce, indicating that companies' cautious attitude towards the economic outlook is being transmitted to the employment sector.
The consumer side is also under pressure. US retail sales fell 0.2% month-on-month in January. As the core engine accounting for nearly 70% of GDP, weak consumer spending highlights weakening domestic demand. Market analysis generally believes that if the economy continues to weaken, the Federal Reserve may accelerate its shift towards easing policies.
Polymarket data shows that traders generally bet that the Federal Reserve will implement one to two interest rate cuts this year. Historical experience shows that when the market expects interest rates to decline, Bitcoin and mainstream crypto assets tend to receive stronger liquidity support, and asset prices tend to rise. In the current environment, investors are closely watching the interaction between subsequent economic data and Federal Reserve policy signals.