Weak Non-Farm Payrolls Impact Market Expectations: How Does Bitcoin React?

In February 2026, U.S. non-farm payroll data unexpectedly declined, with a decrease of 93,000 in new jobs and the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, higher than the previous month's 4.3%. This data, released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, broke the previous months-long trend of job growth—January's non-farm payrolls had added 130,000 jobs. The market had originally expected an increase of about 50,000 jobs and the unemployment rate to remain unchanged. The actual results were far below expectations, raising concerns about weakening economic momentum.

Several media outlets have described this data pullback as an "unexpected downturn," with short-term factors such as healthcare industry strikes and severe cold weather being seen as temporary disruptions. However, deeper trends indicate that companies' willingness to hire is cooling down. Economists at Citibank pointed out that both the number of job vacancies and job seekers' perception of job availability have loosened, indicating that demand in the labor market is gradually cooling.

This change directly impacts the Federal Reserve's policy path. Previously, the market widely expected the Fed to begin cutting interest rates in the middle of the year, but weak employment data has instead increased policymakers' wait-and-see attitude. TD Securities had warned that if private sector wage growth is weak while the public sector remains relatively stable, it could mean a structural adjustment in the economy, further delaying the timing of rate cuts. Key indicators to watch in the future include the upcoming JOLTS Job Openings report, unemployment claims data, and follow-up assessments of the impact of strikes and weather. If subsequent data continues to be weak, it will reinforce the "soft landing" expectation. Conversely, if it is only a short-term fluctuation, the market may regain confidence. Against the backdrop of macroeconomic changes, Bitcoin's price once traded near $69,979, with a daily volatility of about 3.15%. The 14-day RSI indicator remained in the neutral range of 51.5, and the overall market sentiment was cautious. Although short-term sentiment is disturbed, in the long run, crypto assets still closely follow the evolution of macroeconomic liquidity expectations.