Regulatory Clarity Ahead? Beware the Crypto Market's 'Buy the Rumor, Sell the News' Trap

As rumors of the 2026 Clarity Act intensify, the crypto market is once again ignited by optimism. Many believe that once a regulatory framework is clear, institutional funds will flood in, driving prices to skyrocket. But historical experience tells us that this expectation often backfires.

Take Bitcoin ETFs as an example. During the rumor phase, the market drove BTC from around $28,000 to $74,000, an increase of 164%. However, once officially approved, the price entered a long period of consolidation, even a correction. The same is true for Ethereum—its spot ETF announcement saw a 20% surge on the day, but subsequently fell by 64% within a year. Similar patterns have repeatedly occurred in protocol upgrades, major collaborations, and fork events, yet the market always repeats the same mistakes in each cycle.

More importantly, the real beneficiaries are not ordinary investors. Large asset management institutions like BlackRock, having already held huge amounts of Bitcoin, can take advantage of policy implementation to realize high-level cash-outs, further consolidating their influence on prices. Ordinary traders who chase highs after the news is confirmed are likely to become 'bag holders.' Some analysts point out that Bitcoin may have peaked in October 2025 and is expected to enter a bear market in the next 12 months, with prices potentially falling back to around $35,000. In this context, the real opportunity lies not in waiting for the bill to pass, but in positioning early—quietly building positions while the market is still full of uncertainty and sentiment has not yet reached full frenzy. When everyone cheers for the policy implementation, smart money has already quietly left. In short: don't chase the 'news,' but seize the 'rumor.' The real profits belong to those who enter before the noise.