Bitcoin's price stabilized around $70,500 this weekend, marking a 6% weekly gain. It briefly surged to $73,470 before retracing to $63,000, reflecting its high sensitivity to global macroeconomic events. Concurrently, major US stock indices showed resilience, with S&P 500 futures edging up after the US government strengthened security measures for critical energy infrastructure. This synchronized rebound has prompted a re-evaluation of whether Bitcoin can still serve as an independent safe-haven asset.
In stark contrast to risk assets, the bond market is signaling caution. The US 10-year Treasury yield has climbed for four consecutive days, reaching 4.15%. Given the inverse relationship between bond prices and yields, this trend indicates that investors are demanding higher returns to hedge against inflation risks, suggesting underlying uncertainty beneath market optimism.
Prominent Bitcoin advocate Michael Saylor pointed out on social media that current demand for Bitcoin significantly exceeds its new supply, supporting its long-term value proposition. However, market expectations for two Federal Reserve rate cuts this year are rapidly diminishing, with the probability now below 50%. If the 10-year Treasury yield breaches 4.20%, it could trigger systematic selling by quantitative trading models, putting pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin. Conversely, if the yield remains below 4%, a risk-on environment may persist.
Traders are closely monitoring three key levels: first, whether Bitcoin can firmly break through $74,000, confirming its resilience; second, whether the US Treasury yield breaks through 4.20%, potentially triggering a market chain reaction; and third, whether $63,000 serves as an effective support level, with a breach potentially triggering accelerated declines. Currently, the interplay of geopolitical volatility and economic data has pushed the market into a highly sensitive period, with volatility remaining the dominant theme, attracting widespread attention from professional institutions to new investors.