The latest data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics shows the economy shed 92,000 jobs last month, with the unemployment rate climbing to 4.4%, raising concerns about a sustained weakening of the labor market. Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman stated that the previous stance of holding interest rates steady is no longer applicable, with the latest data indicating a slowdown in the labor market, potentially requiring moderate policy easing to provide support.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller pointed out that future interest rate decisions will heavily rely on subsequent employment and inflation data, maintaining an overall cautious attitude. Although the probability of a rate cut in March has slightly increased to 4.7% according to market forecasts, most analysts believe that the Fed is more likely to wait until mid-year or even later, especially before the unemployment rate breaks through the key threshold of 5%, the possibility of a policy shift is low.
Diverging economic signals are prompting investors to closely monitor the central bank's subsequent statements and the pace of data releases. If the Fed confirms a sustained decline in inflation and increased employment pressure, the rate cut cycle may begin in the second half of 2025. Historically, interest rate cuts typically lead to increased market liquidity and a rebound in risk appetite, an environment that often favors non-traditional assets, such as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, gaining stronger funding support.
It is worth noting that although short-term market volatility may occur, in the long run, central bank liquidity expansion is still seen as an important potential driver for the revaluation of crypto assets. The Fed's goal is to strike a balance between preventing further economic slowdown and curbing a resurgence of inflation, and any policy adjustments will be based on sufficient data verification.