Crypto analyst EGRAG CRYPTO has released an in-depth, 13-part analysis, pointing out that the XRP to Bitcoin (BTC) exchange rate exhibits a recognizable liquidity cycle pattern. He believes the current market structure is quietly replicating the pre-expansion prelude of 2017.
Most traders focus on XRP's USD price movements, but this overlooks more fundamental dynamics. EGRAG emphasizes that the XRP/BTC ratio truly reflects the direction of capital flow between Bitcoin and XRP. Even if XRP rises against the dollar, the ratio will still fall if it weakens relative to Bitcoin. Therefore, this ratio is an important indicator of whether capital is shifting from Bitcoin to altcoins.
Historical data shows that when the XRP/BTC ratio rises, it tends to be an explosive breakout rather than a slow climb. This rotation of funds is usually accompanied by a dramatic shift in market sentiment.
On a monthly chart (2014 to early 2026) plotted on the Binance platform, EGRAG identifies two key areas that define the start and end of each major cycle.
The green area is the "overbought zone" (Zone 1), located at the top of the chart. Whenever the ratio touches this range, XRP is overbought by the market, followed by profit-taking, which initiates a relative depreciation cycle lasting several years. This pattern was validated at the highs of 2017 and 2021.
The red area is the "oversold zone" (Zone 2), located at the bottom of the chart, and is a signal area for long-term capital accumulation. When the ratio falls to this area, XRP is severely undervalued, and institutions and long-term holders begin to gradually accumulate, laying the groundwork for the next round of relative strength. Historically, the lows of 2015, 2020, and 2024-2025 have all occurred in this range.
Currently, the price is hovering within the gray compression band between the two zones, forming a typical oscillating consolidation pattern. Volatility has narrowed significantly, and market liquidity continues to accumulate, consistent with the typical characteristics of a cycle reversal in historical cycles.
EGRAG has sorted out two complete cycles: 2014 to 2017, where XRP experienced a long-term correction after an initial surge until a sudden breakout in 2017; then 2018 to 2024, where the market returned to Bitcoin dominance until 2024–2025, re-touching Zone 2 to complete the cycle reset.
He suggests that this cycle runs for approximately eight years: Bitcoin dominance → suppressed market sentiment → liquidity accumulation → coin rotation → XRP welcomes a strong rebound as a latecomer.
The current market is at a critical juncture—the compression range has lasted for months, and if the upper resistance level is broken in the future, it may trigger a rapid rise similar to 2017. Traders need to pay close attention to changes in volume and breakout signals, rather than simply focusing on the USD price.
It is worth noting that XRP is not a cycle leader, but a lagging responder. Its breakout often occurs in the later stages of the overall altcoin market liquidity reallocation.