Bitcoin's market capitalization is calculated by multiplying the current price by the circulating supply, while the realized value is based on the weighted average price of each Bitcoin's last on-chain transaction, reflecting the average cost basis of all holders. The relative movement of these two indicators is often seen as a barometer of market sentiment and capital flow: when the market cap is higher than the realized value, it indicates active buying; conversely, it suggests that potential selling pressure is accumulating.
Since the beginning of 2020, the data has shown a clear cyclical pattern. During the 2021 bull market peak, the market cap significantly outpaced the realized value, reflecting strong speculative demand driving prices rapidly upward. However, in 2022, the market cap growth slowed, and the Bitcoin price fell back to the $15,000 range, while the realized value continued to climb, indicating that a large number of holders did not sell at high levels but continued to accumulate at low levels.
After 2023, the market cap briefly rebounded, alleviating downward pressure. However, entering around 2026, the growth rate of the realized value once again surpassed the market cap, meaning that although network activity and long-term holding intentions increased, new capital inflows failed to keep pace with the value appreciation of existing assets.
Observed through a 365-day moving average, the orange line represents the market cap trend, and the blue line represents the realized value momentum. In 2021, the gap between the two widened, with the market clearly dominating; in 2022, the orange line fell back, and the blue line continued to rise; although there was a rebound in 2024, the orange line was surpassed again by the blue line in 2026. This indicates that even with robust on-chain activity and solid confidence among long-term holders, the current market still lacks sufficient new demand to drive price breakthroughs.
This persistent divergence reveals a core issue: Bitcoin's value foundation is solidifying, but price momentum is limited by insufficient buying power. Without a large influx of new capital, the market may remain in a volatile consolidation phase for a long time, making it difficult to start a new round of major uptrend.