Polkadot (DOT) Tests Key $1.22 Support: Can a Wave C Rebound Begin?

Polkadot (DOT) is currently oscillating around $1.45, with market focus centered on the critical support level at $1.22. Since rebounding from the February lows, DOT initially showed signs of recovery momentum, but the upward trend on the 4-hour chart has noticeably slowed recently. The price is now close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at approximately $1.468, forming a short-term resistance reference. Multiple Fibonacci levels below constitute a significant support system: the 50% retracement level is at $1.391, the 61.8% retracement level is near $1.318, and the deeper 78.6% support is close to $1.220. If the price breaks below this area, it may indicate that the correction is not yet complete, and further downward exploration may follow.

Sentiment in the derivatives market is becoming cautious. DOT derivatives open interest has fallen from a previous high of over $600 million to approximately $202 million, indicating that most high-leverage positions have exited. Despite the decrease in trading activity, the market price remains relatively stable, with a 24-hour trading volume of approximately $120.5 million, a slight decrease of 2.82%. Overall, the market is still in a consolidation phase, with traders generally waiting for clear directional signals. If the price can effectively break through the upper resistance, a new round of gains is expected, with a target range potentially pointing to $2.76 to $3.63, or even higher; conversely, if support is lost, it may retest the Fibonacci support sequence below.