Willy Woo: Bitcoin Still in the Depths of a Bear Market, Rally May Be a Bull Trap

Renowned on-chain analyst Willy Woo points out that the recent Bitcoin rally does not signal the end of the bear market, but may instead be a classic "bull trap." He believes that the current price action lacks solid fundamental support and is more due to a temporary release of market liquidity rather than a signal of a trend reversal. From the perspective of on-chain data, key indicators such as holding structure, large transaction distribution, and net exchange outflows have not yet shown the typical characteristics of a healthy bull market.

Woo emphasizes that true market bottoms are often accompanied by a steady recovery in the confidence of long-term holders and a sustained increase in network activity, and these signals have not yet fully emerged. Historical experience shows that in the late stages of a bear market, prices often experience several false breakouts to lure short-term traders into the market, followed by another downward test. The current market is highly similar to the patterns before the bottoming out of several past bear markets.

In addition, other market indicators also send cautious signals: implied volatility in the options market remains low, indicating that market sentiment has not yet turned optimistic; the mining hash rate has not shown a significant rebound, and miner pressure has not been significantly alleviated. These factors collectively suggest that Bitcoin may still be in a consolidation and bottoming phase, and investors should remain patient and avoid chasing highs too early. Woo suggests that the real turning point worth paying attention to should be the continuous net inflow of large addresses on-chain, a steady increase in the proportion of long-term holders, and the gradual accumulation of buying power in a low-volatility environment. Before that, any rebound should be treated with caution.