Crypto analyst Crypto Tice has conducted an in-depth study of Bitcoin's historical price data, revealing a significant 23-month market cycle. Following major peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021, Bitcoin experienced approximately 23 months of adjustment periods, ultimately stabilizing at lower levels. This cycle is often marked on charts with 'green zones,' reflecting the structural characteristic of the market gradually restoring balance after experiencing severe volatility.
Despite the high consistency of this pattern across the past three cycles, the analyst emphasizes that historical trends do not guarantee future movements. As the cycle enters a new adjustment phase, market selling pressure appears to be weakening, and a potential buying window may be gradually emerging. However, the current global economic environment is markedly different from the past: increasing macroeconomic uncertainty, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and institutional investors facing forced liquidation risks are external factors that could disrupt the traditional cycle's operational logic.
In contrast to the relatively independent market environments of the past, Bitcoin is now deeply embedded in the global financial system, making its price fluctuations more susceptible to systemic risks. Therefore, while the time frame aligns with historical patterns, investors should remain cautious and consider the potential disruptions of macro variables on market rhythms. The cycle offers probabilistic references rather than deterministic predictions.