Bloomberg senior market analyst Mike McGlone recently pointed out that a military conflict between the U.S. and Iran could become a key trigger for a new round of economic recession in the United States. He believes that geopolitical tensions will exacerbate the already fragile volatility in financial markets, particularly impacting commodities, bonds, and digital assets.
McGlone specifically focused on several key market indicators, suggesting that if Bitcoin remains above $74,000, copper prices break $6 per pound, silver rises to $100 per ounce, the S&P 500 surpasses 7,000 points, and the Dow Jones approaches 50,000 points, it could indicate economic resilience beyond expectations. However, if U.S. Treasury yields exceed 5%, it could lead to widespread asset pressure, creating a 'lose-lose' situation.
In the crypto space, he suggested that the current market pullback may signal an early indication of a deflationary trend in the post-inflation cycle. McGlone noted that the explosive growth of crypto assets in recent years had led to an oversupply in the market, and the current price correction is a natural process of supply and demand rebalancing. He emphasized that this adjustment is not a short-term fluctuation but the beginning of a structural change.
The energy market is also a core focus of his analysis. He mentioned that sharp increases in oil prices often trigger short-covering rallies, which in turn amplify market volatility and raise global recession risks. Notably, U.S. natural gas prices may become an important barometer for the crude oil market by 2026—despite soaring nearly 100% in January, they have since fallen about 15% within the year, reflecting the complex changes in supply and demand expectations.
McGlone further predicts that the violent fluctuations in precious metals and energy markets will eventually transmit to the stock market. In terms of asset allocation, he hinted that 2026 may see a strong return of bonds. Reflecting on Bitcoin's leadership in 2024 and gold's outstanding performance in 2025, he believes U.S. Treasuries may attract safe-haven demand next year, becoming the most promising asset class.