Recently, Bitcoin's price faced resistance at the critical level of $74,000, failing to achieve a decisive breakout, leading to a cautious market sentiment. Multiple analysts have pointed out that if it cannot regain this level in the short term, the price may drop to the potential support area around $61,000.
Crypto Candy Trader analysis indicates that Bitcoin's technical formation has turned bearish since it failed to maintain a close above $70,000. Although there may be a short-term rebound to the $65,000–66,000 range, the overall trend remains dominated by bears.
Technical analysis expert Rekt Capital emphasized that Bitcoin briefly broke above the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) on a weekly basis, but only left an upper shadow without closing above it. This “false breakout” pattern often signals a downward trend reversal. If subsequent weekly closes fall below this average, the 200-week EMA may turn into a strong resistance, further intensifying downward pressure.
It is noteworthy that Bitcoin's relative performance against gold has shown a rare divergence. Analyst Michael van de Poppe pointed out that Bitcoin's RSI ratio against gold has dropped to historical lows, indicating that gold has been overbought recently due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, while Bitcoin is in an oversold state. Once geopolitical risks ease, funds may flow back into Bitcoin, but clear upward momentum is still needed to confirm a reversal.
On-chain data further reveals the industry's pressured state. CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju disclosed that the average mining cost of Bitcoin for companies like MARA is around $70,027, with current prices nearing this cost line. Some miners are already on the brink of profit and loss, potentially forced to sell to maintain operations.
Additionally, data from Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards shows that currently, 77% of corporate holders are at a paper loss, a figure comparable to the depths of the bear market in May 2022. Historical data indicates that the market did not bottom out at that point, with Bitcoin subsequently dropping nearly 50%, reaching a low of $16,000. Rekt Capital warns that the current market environment is highly similar to historical lows, and investors should be cautious of further downside risks.