Many XRP holders are closely watching ETF approval developments, but are overlooking the negligible impact of current ETF products on the actual price. Digital finance strategist Jake Claver points out that the ETFs currently traded are futures-based, which do not directly hold XRP. They operate solely by rolling contracts and charging management fees. The total holdings of approximately $240 million have not affected the actual circulating supply of XRP.
The real turning point lies in the launch of spot ETFs. Once approved, authorized participants will be legally required to purchase and hold real XRP. These tokens will be held long-term by custodian institutions such as Coinbase and Anchorage. Each ETF share corresponds to an equivalent value of physical tokens locked up. This means that for every $1 of funds flowing in, a corresponding amount of XRP will be permanently removed from market circulation.
Currently, XRP inventories on exchanges are at historical lows. The available XRP on the Coinbase platform alone has decreased by nearly 90% compared to a few months ago, with approximately 100 million coins remaining. If the net inflow of spot ETFs in the first year is conservatively estimated at $2 billion to $4 billion, it could create a severe supply shortage. Institutions, including JPMorgan Chase, predict that the inflow in the first month could be as high as $5 billion to $8 billion.
Claver uses a vivid analogy to describe this situation: "It's like a balloon held underwater; once released, it will bounce up violently."
Compared to Bitcoin ETFs, which took nearly a year after approval in January 2024 to push the price to $100,000, XRP's market structure is more fragile—smaller circulating supply, lower liquidity, and thinner exchange reserves. Therefore, the price reaction may be released dramatically within weeks to months.
Currently, eight XRP spot ETF applications are pending review. The SEC approval window is expected to be concentrated at the end of 2025, with market predictions exceeding a 90% probability of approval. At the same time, the promotion of RLUSD, the digital legal currency pilot projects carried out by central banks in various countries on the XRPL, the nearing end of Ripple's lawsuit with the SEC, and potential major institutional cooperation news are forming a multiple catalyst superposition trend.
For long-term holders, this is not only a policy turning point but also a critical moment for the reshaping of the market structure.