Recently, Brent crude oil prices have surged, nearing $115 per barrel, with a daily increase of nearly 25%. However, this round of price hikes is not due to actual supply disruptions but rather a "fear premium" triggered by market concerns over the safety of shipping in the Hormuz Strait. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright pointed out that the current price volatility is primarily driven by sentiment and expectations, rather than a real shortage of crude oil.
Market analysts generally believe that escalating geopolitical tensions have heightened investors' worries about disruptions to this critical shipping route. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf warned that if regional conflicts persist, Iran may struggle to maintain its oil production and export capacity, further exacerbating global supply uncertainty.
Currently, the market is closely monitoring several key signals to determine whether this price increase has fundamental support. These include: whether the cost of shipping insurance along the Hormuz Strait is rising, any clear reports of crude oil production or export interruptions, official statements from major energy agencies, and whether retail fuel and freight prices are experiencing transmission effects. These indicators help distinguish between market sentiment and actual supply changes.
If regional tensions ease and shipping channels remain open, the fear premium is expected to gradually dissipate within weeks. Conversely, if conflicts recur, insurance companies, shipping firms, and refineries will continue to adjust risk pricing, leading to sustained high price volatility, with short-term news events potentially becoming the main drivers of price fluctuations.