Bitcoin Stuck in Mid-Bear Market, Liquidity Woes Delay Rebound Signals

Despite a recent brief rally in Bitcoin's price, the overall market remains in the middle of a structural bear market. Prominent analyst Willy Woo points out that current price fluctuations are driven more by liquidity constraints than by strong bullish fundamentals. While there are signs of long-term holders returning, they have not yet formed a combined force sufficient to reverse the trend. Santiment data shows that whales continue to sell off, while retail investors are actively buying near $70,000. This divergent pattern has historically indicated that the correction is not yet over and the true bottom has not yet appeared.

CryptoQuant also emphasizes that even short-term price increases should not be regarded as a clear signal of trend reversal. A truly effective turnaround usually requires a substantial improvement in the liquidity environment and the continued participation of institutions and long-term capital. The Fear and Greed Index, after a brief rebound, has fallen back into the "Extreme Fear" range, reflecting the market's continued fragility and investors' high degree of caution about entering at high levels.

Woo believes that after a rapid decline, Bitcoin often enters a consolidation phase, digesting selling pressure through horizontal fluctuations rather than directly starting a strong upward trend. A real breakthrough requires liquidity to be restored and risk appetite to systematically recover. Current market dynamics indicate that price movements have transcended simple technical chart analysis and become a comprehensive reflection of on-chain behavior, the macro environment, and investor psychology. If significant improvements in liquidity and sustained inflows of large amounts of capital are not seen in the coming weeks, the market may retest previous lows. Amidst the debate surrounding the four-year cycle and new high expectations, the data clearly reveals that Bitcoin's recovery depends not only on price recovery but also on the simultaneous improvement of liquidity, holding structure, and market confidence.