In the context of escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran, Bitcoin's price remains stable around $67,609. Although it has retreated about 47% from its historical high, it still demonstrates strong resilience. As the conflict enters its second week, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has warned of potential further casualties, while former President Trump reiterated calls for Iran to surrender unconditionally, intensifying market panic. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index, reflecting investor sentiment, has dropped to 8, marking the lowest level since the onset of this conflict, with the market overall entering the 'extreme fear' zone.
Meanwhile, the cumulative outflow from Bitcoin ETFs this year has reached $4.5 billion, indicating that some institutional investors are withdrawing from risk assets. Ethereum's price stands at $1,989, having risen slightly by 1.62% in the past 24 hours, but the overall crypto market remains weighed down by both macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures.
Rising energy prices have become a key variable. Brent crude oil prices have surpassed $100 per barrel, significantly dampening expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. The market had initially anticipated a potential easing cycle in the second half of 2025, but this has now been postponed due to renewed inflationary pressures, with even the possibility of a rate cut in June being questioned. Institutional investors' wait for a shift in monetary policy is facing new uncertainties.
Analytical opinions are divided. CoinShares' research director James Butterfield pointed out that if energy inflation continues to suppress the pace of monetary easing, traditional risk assets may come under pressure; however, if confidence in the global financial system further deteriorates, Bitcoin, as a non-sovereign and scarce asset, is likely to attract safe-haven funds in the medium to long term.
It is noteworthy that Iran's domestic cryptocurrency market has reached $7.8 billion, with a net outflow surge of 700% during the conflict, reflecting the direct impact of the geopolitical crisis on local digital asset liquidity. The market widely expects that the Federal Reserve's meeting on March 18-19 will provide the first clear signal regarding the interest rate path. In the meantime, Bitcoin is expected to remain in the $65,000 to $70,000 range, with short-term volatility driven by geopolitical news.