Oil Surges to $113.7, Bitcoin Hit Again by Geopolitical Risks

On Sunday evening, Bitcoin's price once fell nearly 2%, coinciding with a surge of about 20% in international oil prices, reaching a new high since April 2022. This volatility, driven by concerns over energy supply due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, reveals a profound shift in market sentiment: as energy security becomes a core variable, Bitcoin's narrative as a 'safe-haven asset' is being tested.

Previously, with the news of the passing of Iran's Supreme Leader, Bitcoin had climbed from under $64,000 to $73,770, once seen as a beneficiary asset in geopolitical conflicts. However, the market's reaction has not been linearly consistent. As crude oil prices continued to strengthen, with a weekly increase of over 30%, Bitcoin has fallen for four consecutive trading days. This divergence indicates that investors are reassessing risk priorities—in a context where the energy supply chain faces substantial threats, the market is more inclined to pursue physical assets and traditional safe-haven instruments, rather than relying on narrative-driven crypto assets.

Although Bitcoin was once expected to be 'digital gold,' its ability to resist risk in a complex environment of energy crises and inflationary pressures still heavily relies on overall market sentiment and liquidity conditions. This divergence between oil and Bitcoin prices marks Bitcoin's return to a sensitive range of geopolitical volatility, rather than being an independent haven from the traditional financial system.