Since breaking above $2.80 in 2025, XRP has entered a prolonged adjustment phase, currently hovering around $1.34. This correction has left many investors in a state of unrealized losses, with an estimated 36.8 billion XRP holdings having an average cost higher than the current price, resulting in significant overall unrealized losses in the market.
Analysts point out that the price movements of crypto assets often follow cyclical patterns, and XRP is no exception. Historical data shows that during the previous cycle from 2017 to 2018, XRP's price dropped by about 67% before undergoing a 210-day consolidation period, after which it began a new upward trend. In the 2021 cycle, the price decline was even steeper, reaching 77%, but the adjustment period was shorter, reflecting a quicker market liquidity clearance.
From a technical perspective, XRP is still within a descending channel formed since its peak, with no clear reversal signals yet. Some analysts believe that the price may continue to retrace to the starting point of the previous upward movement—around $0.85—as a potential support level for deeper adjustments.
Using the Fibonacci retracement tool, the market is focused on two key long-term targets: $6.80 is seen as a possible signal for market sentiment to bottom out, marking the completion of a “fear-driven sell-off”; while $20 represents the potential peak of the next major bull market cycle. However, to achieve these targets, the market still needs to undergo sufficient liquidation and consolidation.
In the long run, XRP's value trajectory will heavily depend on its actual application progress in the financial payment sector, the clarification of the global regulatory environment, and the overall recovery of crypto market sentiment. In the short term, the market is primarily focused on building a bottom through consolidation, and investors need to patiently wait for signals that resonate between technical and fundamental factors.