If a significant portion of XRP's circulating supply is locked up long-term, its price may experience substantial upward pressure. Crypto analyst Amonyx points out that once approximately 30% of XRP exits the circulating market, prices could reach the range of $7.5 to $11. This prediction is not based on historical price averages but rather stems from a liquidity premium model—specifically, the structural impact of supply contraction on market pricing.
When 18.33 billion XRP are permanently removed from the trading pool, the market will experience a significant scarcity effect. This structural change on the supply side allows prices to detach from short-term use cases and be revalued purely due to tightening liquidity.
If the financial use cases for XRP continue to expand, the scarcity of its unit value will be further amplified. In practical applications such as payments and cross-border settlements, the limited available supply will enhance the competitive intensity of each token, thereby supporting higher price levels.
In a more aggressive scenario, if the locked-in ratio rises to 50% or even 70%, the price fluctuation range could widen significantly. Sustained market demand combined with extremely low market float will create a rare supply-demand imbalance, driving valuations to experience non-linear jumps. However, this scenario hinges on the condition that market demand not only remains stable but continues to grow.
Overall, the price momentum of XRP is gradually shifting from being “application-driven” to “supply-constrained driven.” In a high-confidence market environment, liquidity premium may become the core logic driving price trends, rather than merely relying on technological advancements or narrative hype.