Bitcoin Stands Firm Against the Tide: Independent Performance Amidst Stock Market Turmoil and Geopolitical Conflicts

Renowned Wall Street strategist Ed Yardeni has significantly increased his forecast for the risk of a U.S. stock market crash, raising the probability from 20% to 35% before the end of 2025. With decades of experience as a macro market analyst, Yardeni's adjustment is based on escalating geopolitical tensions and persistently high inflationary pressures.

International oil prices have broken through the $100 per barrel mark, a key threshold that often foreshadows rising energy costs hindering economic expansion. Historically, soaring energy prices have pushed up production costs, suppressed consumption and investment, and subsequently impacted traditional stock markets and crypto assets. Despite this, Bitcoin's performance has demonstrated resilience unlike traditional assets.

According to research from digital asset institution NYDIG, only 25% of Bitcoin's price fluctuations are linked to the traditional stock market, with the remainder primarily driven by factors within the crypto market itself. Greg Cipolaro, Head of Research at NYDIG, pointed out that the recent synchronized movement of Bitcoin and tech stocks reflects more of a transmission of macro sentiment rather than structural dependence. Since 2020, although Bitcoin has often declined alongside global stock markets under extreme risk-off sentiment, its long-term trend is still dominated by on-chain activity, supply changes, and market sentiment specific to crypto. Meanwhile, global stock markets have experienced significant corrections: the MSCI World Index fell 3.7% weekly, S&P 500 futures fell more than 2% during Asian trading hours, the VIX volatility index reflecting market panic climbed to its highest level since trade frictions in April 2024, and the U.S. dollar saw its strongest weekly gain in the past year. Notably, although political changes in Iran and heightened tensions between the U.S. and Iran have exacerbated global uncertainty, Bitcoin has not been as severely pressured as traditional assets. Instead, it has demonstrated relatively independent pricing power in some periods, further confirming its potential safe-haven attribute as an alternative asset.