Bitcoin Defies Pressure: Demonstrates Unique Resilience Amid Market Turmoil

Renowned US market strategist Ed Yardeni has significantly increased the probability of a US stock market crash, estimating a 35% chance of a crash by 2025, up from the previous 20%. Simultaneously, his expectation of a continued bull market has dropped to just 5%. This adjustment is driven by the dual pressures of heightened geopolitical tensions and rising macroeconomic uncertainty.

Sustained increases in energy prices, with Brent crude oil surpassing $100 per barrel, are pushing up inflation expectations and suppressing global economic growth prospects. High energy costs are not only impacting traditional stock markets but also exacerbating volatility in digital asset markets. Yardeni used a vivid analogy to describe the current predicament: "The US financial system is caught between Iran and a hard place," alluding to the escalating situation in the Middle East—especially renewed conflict following leadership changes in Iran—which is continuously unsettling global investor sentiment.

Against this backdrop, Bitcoin is exhibiting unique characteristics distinct from traditional assets. According to research by digital asset management firm NYDIG, only about 25% of Bitcoin's price fluctuations are correlated with US stock market movements, with the remainder primarily driven by factors within the crypto ecosystem itself. Greg Cipolaro, Head of Research at NYDIG, pointed out that the periodic correlation between Bitcoin and tech stocks stems from their shared sensitivity to changes in macro liquidity, rather than a deep-seated fundamental connection. Although Bitcoin has often declined in tandem with market crashes since 2020, its volatility has been significantly less than that of the stock market. Recent data indicates that Bitcoin's downward pressure has been relatively moderate, demonstrating a certain capacity to absorb risk. Meanwhile, market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policy have also shifted: investors now widely anticipate the first interest rate cut to be delayed until September, rather than the previously expected first half of the year. Market panic continues to escalate, with the VIX fear index rising to its highest level since April 2024, and the US dollar experiencing its strongest weekly gain in a year, highlighting the demand for safe-haven assets. The 10-year US Treasury yield edged up by 6 basis points, reflecting deepening inflation concerns. The S&P 500 index saw a weekly decline of 2%, which, while a drop, outperformed many international stock indices, partly due to the support of US domestic energy self-sufficiency.