Performance of Assets After Crises
For instance, two months after the Trump administration announced massive tariffs in April 2023, Bitcoin surged by 24%. Meanwhile, gold prices increased by 8%, and the S&P 500 index grew by 4%. A similar trend was observed at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic: in March 2020, Bitcoin rose by 21%, while gold and the S&P 500 underperformed.
The report also noted that during economic shocks, investors typically sell off holdings to ensure cash flow, which not only leads to a pullback in risk assets but can also temporarily depress the value of traditional safe havens like gold. Market turbulence often triggers large-scale sell-offs, regardless of the asset's perceived safety.
Recent Bitcoin Trends vs. Long-Term Trends
Against the backdrop of ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, Bitcoin emerged as the only asset among Bitcoin, gold, and the S&P 500 to achieve positive returns. According to analysis, Bitcoin has risen over 2.2% since the escalation of the conflict. During this period, gold's value declined by about 11%, while the S&P 500 dropped by 4.4%, marking the steepest monthly decline since 2022.
Szuster warned that drawing conclusions based on post-crisis asset performance can be misleading, emphasizing the importance of adopting a long-term perspective.
It is erroneous to conclude after observing the opening scenes of a story. Szuster likened this process to deciding the ending after watching the initial moments of a movie. He pointed out that during crises, investors often close positions to meet liquidity needs, which not only pressures risk assets but also affects those considered safe havens.
Further research indicates that although Bitcoin prices may experience significant volatility during geopolitical pressures or crises, this cryptocurrency often shows a trend of recovery afterward. This resilience pattern has re-emerged in the recent U.S.-Iran tensions.
From a broader perspective, Szuster summarized that over the past decade, based on available data, Bitcoin has consistently been the highest-yielding asset.