Bitcoin Rebound Fails to Rescue Mining Firms: Profitability Threshold Far Exceeds Market Expectations

Despite the rebound in Bitcoin prices, it's not enough to reverse the losses for major mining companies. Take Riot Platforms as an example: while the current Bitcoin price can cover electricity costs, it still cannot offset comprehensive expenses such as operating expenditures and asset depreciation. The real profitability threshold is far beyond the superficial price increase.

Analysis indicates that the profitability of mining companies needs to be assessed in layers: the first layer is energy cost coverage, the second layer is operating expense balance, and the third layer is the turning point for accounting profits. When the Bitcoin price reached $67,200, Riot could only achieve break-even on the energy front, but operating and accounting profits were still significantly negative.

In a more pessimistic scenario, if the price falls back to $49,000, the energy loss per Bitcoin would be $15,635, the operating loss would widen to $25,443, and the accounting profit loss would be as high as $65,130. Even by Q1 2026, if Riot's hashrate increases to 45 EH/s and remains stable, cumulatively mining 15,000 Bitcoins, a price of $67,200 would still not be enough to turn its operating profit positive, with cumulative losses of up to $110 million and accounting profit losses exceeding $700 million. Only when the Bitcoin price climbs to $80,000 will the cumulative operating profit turn positive for the first time, reaching $85 million, but the accounting profit will still be negative. To truly achieve full profitability, the price needs to reach $126,000, at which point the cumulative accounting profit can turn positive, reaching approximately $182 million. This reveals a stark reality: the survival of mining companies depends not only on the rise in Bitcoin prices, but also on whether the price can continuously break through multiple cost thresholds.