The number of open contracts for Ethereum is approaching the historical high of 7.8 million ETH set in July 2025. Meanwhile, the spot to futures trading ratio on the Binance platform has dropped to its lowest level of the year.
Leverage Drives Price Movements
The trading volume ratio of spot to futures is a more valuable data point, currently at 0.13 on Binance, marking a historic low.
“In practical terms, this means that the futures trading volume is now about seven times that of the spot trading volume,” analysts noted. “In other words, for every dollar traded in the spot market, about seven dollars flow into futures contracts.”
The current situation is “difficult to interpret,” Darkfost stated, which is usually not a good sign. Ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties between the U.S., Israel, and Iran have made investors more cautious, but the high activity in the Ethereum derivatives market indicates that speculators are not backing down.
Key Price Levels Will Impact Long-Term Outlook
Despite Darkfost's concerns about Ethereum's spot and futures trading, their impact on cryptocurrency prices may manifest in a scenario described by another analyst, Ali Martinez.
If the current structure shifts to a wider range, Martinez indicated that prices could drop to $1,550 and $1,070. On-chain data shows concentrated buying activity at $1,584, $1,238, and $1,089, which will serve as support levels.
On the upside, the $2,500 level remains a critical threshold. Martinez pointed out that a sustained breakthrough at this point would mean average holders return to profitability and could open the door for larger upward movements.