According to Glassnode, there are currently 36.8 billion XRP in a state of loss, marking a historic high for the asset since 2019. The so-called "Supply in Loss" metric measures the total amount of tokens whose holding cost exceeds the current market price. As of March 9, these trapped XRP holders have accumulated unrealized losses of $50.8 billion, far surpassing any previous levels.
This phenomenon can be traced back to the market upcycle from late 2024 to early 2025. At that time, XRP's price approached $3, attracting a large number of investors to enter at high levels. Now, XRP's price has fallen to around $1.34, down over 55% from its peak. This means that nearly all holders who bought during this rally and have not sold are facing varying degrees of paper losses.
Previously, XRP also experienced similar high unrealized loss phases, occurring during mid-2021 and from late 2021 to the 2022 bear market, when the number of loss tokens was around 3.5 to 4 billion. However, unlike in the past, the cost basis for buyers in this round is generally above $2, $2.5, or even $3, significantly higher than historical averages. Therefore, for these investors to break even, XRP's price must return to the previously briefly touched highs—an undoubtedly challenging goal.
It is noteworthy that historical data shows when the "Supply in Loss" of an asset reaches extreme highs, it often does not signal the beginning of a downturn but rather indicates that market sentiment is nearing saturation and selling pressure is weakening. This aligns with the recent observations of other altcoin phenomena: nearly 38% of mainstream altcoin prices are approaching historical lows. Two independent data sources reveal similar market conditions from different dimensions—many investors are trapped, and selling momentum is dwindling.
This does not mean that prices will immediately reverse, but it suggests that the current market may be experiencing the tail end of an emotionally driven extreme sell-off. Whether a bottom has been reached still requires observation of whether prices can stabilize and rebound. However, from a historical cycle perspective, the emergence of such large-scale holding losses often serves as an important precursor signal for market reversal.