Bitcoin Stabilizes at a Critical Juncture: Fed Policy and ETF Flows in Focus

Over the next two weeks, the crypto market will closely revolve around several macroeconomic variables – the Federal Reserve's policy signals, U.S. inflation data, Treasury yield trends, and changes in dollar liquidity. These factors collectively dominate the pricing logic of risk assets. As the most representative crypto asset, Bitcoin is highly sensitive to these indicators, and even subtle adjustments in policy tone can trigger rapid re-evaluations of market positions. AInvest, citing former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes, points out that the current market remains in a phase of suppressed risk appetite, with geopolitical uncertainties intertwined with macroeconomic vulnerabilities. He particularly emphasizes the increasingly close correlation between Bitcoin and the U.S. stock market, as well as the uncleared high-leverage positions in the market, which constitute a potential downward transmission path – if the stock market experiences a correction, crypto assets may come under pressure simultaneously. In the short term, price movements will first reflect changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations and liquidity signals, and then be verified against key technical levels and institutional fund flows. This dynamic combination often amplifies the magnitude of gains and losses in the short term. According to CryptoDailyCheck, Bitcoin previously fell below the 100-week moving average near $85,000, a long-term moving average considered an important watershed for trend strength. Failure to recover quickly may indicate a weakening of short-term momentum; conversely, it is expected to regain its upward foundation.

Market veterans generally believe that liquidity will be the core variable determining the short-term direction in the context of policy expectations, technical resistance, and fund flows intertwined. As Arthur Hayes said, "Bitcoin is currently in a risky phase, and the key trend in the next stage will be dominated by Federal Reserve policy and liquidity trends." The following four dimensions need to be focused on in the next two weeks: First, the macro calendar: The release windows for Federal Reserve public speeches and U.S. CPI, PCE, and other inflation data are extremely dense. Any data deviating from expectations may reshape interest rate path expectations, thereby affecting the dollar and real yields.

Second, liquidity conditions: According to LiveBitcoinNews analysis, the recent tightening of dollar liquidity has put pressure on risk assets, but the market is also observing whether there are implicit easing signals. If liquidity improves marginally, it may become a catalyst for promoting a market rebound, but its sustainability is still uncertain. Third, leverage and market structure: The overall leverage level of the current crypto market is still high, and its correlation with the U.S. stock market has increased, which means that once risk sentiment reverses, it may trigger a chain liquidation. Clearing excessive leverage is a necessary prerequisite for building a solid bottom. Fourth, geopolitics: Escalation of local conflicts or sudden policy shocks may tighten financial conditions without warning, compressing risk appetite. Market reactions often depend on whether such events resonate with existing liquidity pressures and position structures. In summary, Bitcoin is in a sensitive stage that is highly dependent on macro narratives and fund flows, and investors need to pay close attention to the subtle changes in policy rhythm and market sentiment.