Despite Bitcoin's recent rebound around $60,000, indicating some buying support, the overall market remains in a downtrend structure. From a higher time frame perspective, the price has not yet broken through key resistance levels, and trend reversal has not been confirmed.
On the daily chart, Bitcoin continues to trade below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, with the bears maintaining control. The price has long been trapped within a descending channel, suggesting a lack of strong upward momentum. The primary support area is currently concentrated between $60,000 and $61,000, a range that triggered a significant rebound in February. The first major resistance lies between $75,000 and $80,000. Failure to break through this level effectively could mean any rise is seen as a technical correction rather than a trend reversal.
On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin is forming a large flag consolidation pattern, with the recent rebound appearing more like consolidation within the trend than a breakout. The price is currently hovering around $69,000, having repeatedly failed to break through $73,000. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded from oversold territory but has not yet issued a clear bullish signal. If buyers can firmly hold the $64,000 to $65,000 lower edge support of the flag, there is potential for another attempt to challenge the upper rail of the channel. Conversely, if this support is broken, the price may retest the $60,000 level or even fall further.
From on-chain data, the exponential moving average of whale addresses on exchanges has risen significantly over the past 30 days, indicating a notable increase in asset transfers to exchanges by large holders. This phenomenon is often seen as a warning sign of potential increased selling pressure – that is, large accounts may be preparing for subsequent sales. Although there is still room for a technical rebound, the increase in whale activity suggests that upward space may be limited unless this indicator declines, it will be difficult for the market to start a strong upward trend.
