Kalshi Partners with Brazil's XP to Expand Internationally, Targeting New Horizons in Prediction Markets

U.S.-based prediction market platform Kalshi, valued at $11 billion, is venturing into the international market for the first time, partnering strategically with Brazil's largest brokerage, XP Inc., to launch event-based trading contracts based on Brazilian economic indicators. The collaboration will see XP's Clear Corretora handle local operations, while the trading products will be listed through XP's U.S. brokerage entity, circumventing the complexities of establishing new regulatory licenses and enabling rapid compliant implementation. Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara stated that Brazil's current market environment is similar to the early stages of the prediction market in the United States, with immense potential. "As our second country, our progress will be much faster than in the initial stages in the U.S.," she emphasized, adding that leveraging the local partner's customer base and brand trust will more efficiently open up the market. In the collaboration structure, Kalshi provides core technology, market design, and risk management systems, while XP leads local customer relationship management and regulatory communication.

Regulatory dynamics in Brazil are also paving the way for such innovations. The B3 exchange plans to launch its first prediction-based derivatives in the first quarter of 2026, initially covering binary options on the U.S. dollar exchange rate, Ibovespa index, and Bitcoin, limited to professional investors with over 10 million reais in financial assets. This move signals a more open regulatory attitude in Brazil towards structured prediction products. Facing an increasingly competitive landscape, Polymarket has covered over 160 countries through its blockchain architecture and partnered with Betr to reach millions of paying users. FanDuel, DraftKings, and Fanatics are also launching prediction market platforms by the end of 2025. While Kalshi opened its services to over 140 countries in October 2025, the partnership with XP is its first in-depth strategic collaboration with localized distribution, regulatory adaptation, and product customization.

The initial products will focus on Brazilian inflation rates and interest rate changes, precisely matching the trading preferences already active among XP's institutional clients. The target users are U.S. Kalshi users with existing international brokerage accounts and XP Brazil clients. If market demand is strong, there is potential to expand to retail users in the future, but this would require coordinating regulatory authority among the Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM), the Central Bank, and the Ministry of Finance. The B3's planned launch of similar products in the second quarter of 2026 will serve as an important benchmark for measuring the real demand for regulated prediction markets in Brazil. This collaboration not only marks a substantial breakthrough in Kalshi's globalization strategy but also provides a new paradigm for the integration of global prediction markets with traditional financial infrastructure.