Geopolitical Tensions Push Oil Prices Near $90, Crypto Market Pressured in Tandem

Recently, the international crude oil market has experienced dramatic fluctuations, with WTI crude oil prices soaring by approximately 13% in a single day, approaching the $90 per barrel mark, the highest level in months. This surge stems from ongoing tensions in the Middle East, particularly concerning Iran, with market concerns that key energy channels such as the Strait of Hormuz may be disrupted, prompting traders to quickly factor in geopolitical risk premiums. Technical indicators show that this increase is extremely impactful, with the daily RSI exceeding 88, creating one of the most extreme momentum readings since the Kuwait War. Historical data shows that such extreme readings usually appear in the stage of highly one-sided market positions and short squeezes, suggesting that prices may face downward pressure in the short term.

This surge in energy prices coincides with a sensitive moment of easing global inflation expectations. Previously, the market generally expected the Federal Reserve to start a rate cut cycle later this year, and some officials also released signals that "rate cuts could be considered in June if the data supports it." However, the rise in oil prices has reignited concerns about the resurgence of energy inflation, which may delay the Fed's easing pace and make the market's expectations for the interest rate path more cautious. Affected by this, the crypto market has also seen a correction. Bitcoin prices fell back to approximately $68,446, Ethereum remained near $1,981, and BNB also stabilized around $631, with the three major currencies falling between 3% and 5% in a single day. Hyperliquid ecosystem tokens also weakened, reflecting investors' tendency to actively reduce risk exposure when macroeconomic uncertainty rises.

It is worth noting that this market highlights the deep linkage between crypto assets and traditional macro factors. Rising oil prices push up inflation expectations, which in turn pushes up US Treasury yields, creating systemic pressure on high-risk, high-Beta digital assets, causing the crypto market to react quickly in a short period of time. At the same time, decentralized derivatives platforms are unusually active during non-trading hours on weekends. Hyperliquid recorded nearly $17 million in crude oil derivatives trading volume and $148 million in gold derivatives trading volume over the weekend, far exceeding the same period of traditional exchanges. Its crude oil perpetual contract open interest has exceeded $50 million, and gold and silver perpetual contracts are also in high demand, reflecting the market's urgent need for 24/7 hedging tools. Prediction markets also reflect the same trend. Related contracts on Polymarket show that the market assigns a probability of up to 71% that crude oil will break through $100/barrel by the end of this month, further confirming the continued upward pressure of geopolitical risks on energy prices.