Bitcoin Supply Nears Limit: How Will the Final Million Coins Impact the Market?

Since its launch by Satoshi Nakamoto in 2009, Bitcoin has distinguished itself from traditional fiat currency systems with its fixed total supply of 21 million coins. Its issuance mechanism relies on miners earning block rewards by verifying transactions, initially 50 Bitcoins per block. Every four years, this reward undergoes a "halving," gradually reducing the rate of new coin production. Following the latest halving in 2024, the block reward has decreased to 3.125 Bitcoins, with the average daily new supply dropping to approximately 450 coins, a significant reduction compared to before the halving.

However, not all mined Bitcoins are in circulation. Due to lost private keys, hardware damage, or lost contact with early holders, the industry generally estimates that 2 million to 3.5 million Bitcoins are permanently unusable, including the rewards from the Bitcoin network's genesis block. This means that the actual circulating supply is far lower than the theoretical total, further reinforcing scarcity expectations.

Despite the continuous contraction of new supply, Bitcoin's price is still influenced by the global economic environment, market sentiment, and macro liquidity, currently trading in the range of $69,000 to $70,000. Its inherent deflationary nature, against the backdrop of persistent inflationary pressures, has attracted the attention of many long-term investors. As block rewards continue to decrease, miner revenue is gradually shifting towards transaction fees. By 2140, when the last batch of Bitcoins is mined, miners will be completely dependent on transaction fees to maintain network operation. This design ensures that the total supply of Bitcoin will never be over-issued, making it the world's first true digital hard currency. Scarcity is not only a technical feature but also the core cornerstone of its value consensus.