Analyst: Bitcoin's Fair Value Severely Overestimated, True Valuation Around $101,000

Crypto analyst PlanC recently presented a disruptive view, pointing out that the commonly used Bitcoin fair value calculation models in the current market have systematic biases. According to his analysis, most institutions use ordinary least squares regression (OLS) or linear quantile regression methods, which fail to effectively capture the non-linear characteristics of price decay over time, leading to overestimated results, generally yielding valuations of $118,000 to $130,000.

PlanC emphasized that Bitcoin's price evolution has a clear median decay effect, especially at the 50th percentile, and traditional linear models cannot accurately reflect its long-term value trend. He introduced time-varying decay functions such as logarithmic, hyperbolic, and log-normal to remodel, and the results showed that Bitcoin's true statistical fair value should fall in the range of $100,000 to $101,000.

It is worth noting that this model did not observe significant decay in low quantiles (such as the 1st quantile), so in extreme low price ranges, the results of traditional linear methods and the new model converge. However, the median, as the core reference point of market consensus, is the key to correcting the valuation. PlanC believes that current market valuations exceeding $100,000 mostly stem from misjudgments of non-linear dynamics, while his new model is closer to Bitcoin's long-term value trajectory. This analysis does not involve short-term price predictions, nor is it investment advice, but rather a systematic reconstruction of value assessment methods from a statistical perspective.