Trump Claims Imminent Iranian Attack as Bitcoin Holds $68K

Former President Donald Trump stated he has reason to believe Iran plans to attack U.S. forces within a week, citing this as justification for supporting joint U.S.-Israeli operations dubbed “Epic Wrath.” As the military operation enters its second week, markets are assessing whether the situation is de-escalating. During this period, Bitcoin's price has stabilized around $68,927, Brent crude oil prices briefly approached $120 per barrel, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 8, its lowest level in months, reflecting market sentiment of “Extreme Fear.” Trump emphasized in multiple interviews that his judgment is based on an “America First” principle, arguing that if preemptive action is not taken, Iran will strike first. However, Senator Mark Warner, the top Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, pointed out to CNN that there is currently no evidence indicating Iran is preparing to launch any preemptive strikes against the United States. Trump also warned that any hostile actions by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz would lead to the country's “complete disappearance,” and stated he is considering taking actual control of this strategic waterway. Despite Iran's previous announcement of closing the strait, Trump insisted it remains open.

Bitcoin 7-Day Price Chart During Iran War. Source: CoinGecko The crypto market's reaction to the war has been mixed. While geopolitical risks have pushed oil prices higher, Bitcoin has not experienced a significant sell-off, indicating that some institutional investors view the conflict as a localized shock rather than a systemic crisis. However, soaring oil prices could still influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, indirectly suppressing risk assets.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 8 (Extreme Fear). Source: Alternative.me Analysts hold differing views on the matter. Some analysts suggest that if Trump becomes deeply involved in military engagements in the Middle East, the pressure on the fiscal deficit will intensify, forcing the Federal Reserve to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy, thereby enhancing Bitcoin's appeal as a hedge against fiat currency. This view maintains its 2026 Bitcoin target price of $250,000 and anticipates it could rise to the $500,000 to $750,000 range by the end of 2027. Currently, Trump claims the operation has been “very thorough” and appears ready to declare a partial victory. However, Iran's new Supreme Leader, Khamenei, has made it clear that resistance will continue, and the “unconditional surrender” demanded by the U.S. has not been achieved. Meanwhile, U.S. federal debt is growing at an annualized rate of 14%, described by some economists as “currency devaluation.” Against this backdrop, regardless of how the geopolitical conflict concludes, Bitcoin's long-term allocation value as a digital asset to counter fiat currency dilution continues to be closely watched.